21'st century AC - After Corona what ?

21^st Century AC – After Corona, What?

Generations to come will probably talk of the period AC (After Corona) like they talk of BC and AD. As no event in the history of the world has had as large an earth stopping effect like the Chinese virus - COVID19. Our world has witnessed many major Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Volcano eruptions, Typhoons, Plagues, World Wars, Famines, Floods, Riots, Strikes and many more Force Majeure events in its past, but none that made the human race come to a total standstill in a lock down of global proportion.IMF states that never since the great depression of 1930's has the world seen a more devastating economic free fall. All the major calamities left a serious impact on the human thinking and behaviour in some form or the other. The speed, the magnitude, the misery and sheer human death toll has never been of this scale and scope ever before. No wonder that within a matter of 60 days most human activity the world over was brought to a screeching halt. Climate change fears that threaten our very existence could not get all nations united or on board the way this little inanimate virus could. The perfect storm, natures wrath call it what you will, but this small microscopic virus is going to change us forever.

The new era, post Corona will reform most human outlook and behaviour in a magnitude the world has never seen and guessed possible. Political, Social & Cultural, Educational, Economic, Religious, Worker, Healthcare, Gastronomic mutations will transform the world in unanticipated ways. Coming to think of it, some major positive transformation will also happen to our indifferent and irresponsible human way of life too. This is as great a paradigm shift as any will see in their lifetime. The evolving effects of the razing down of the existing order of things is slowly unfolding in all fields, thereby making it a level playing field. In other words, it is as if a Universal RESET button has been secretly pressed.

America that contributed almost 15% of WHO funds has already indicated Fund stoppage as a fall-out of the WHO chief Dr Tedros’s initial green chit to China and for discouraging initial travel bans. Geopolitical strategies will be redrawn, bodies like UN and associations like the European Union and other FTA regimes will be at the very least redefined to factor emerging fears and concerns. Trust factor that was so important for globalization has taken a major beating and nationalism will be the overriding and comprehensive theme. States and Countries will try to become more self-sustainable, considering the severe disruption they faced. Healthcare, Food and Energy security concerns will be foremost. Economic cooperation will at least for the short term be a dubious word at best. China in particular will be looked at with grave suspicion. Australia and European countries have already built in anti-poaching measures to prevent China from grabbing their companies. The movement of Manufacturing and Logistics hubs from mainland China is now inevitable. China itself may have to confront internal strife of a more intransigent nature irrespective of how it controls information.

Western Societies that have generally been very overt in its interpersonal relationships with personal display of affection, will become more self-conscious while engaging with each other at an individual level. More attention on personal hygiene will be very evident across humans. Masks will become all pervasive and in countries like ours, keeping social distances will be the rule than an exception. There will be a hesitation for crowding and jostling and a tendency to avoid such places. Rumours in China that the Africans are responsible for the virus spread has resulted in Africans getting shunted out of their residences and hotels. African countries have issued demarche and protested the hate crimes and racial discrimination of their people in Guangzhou. Even McDonald’s had expressed regret for restricting Africans in their Chinese outlets. Tolerance for emigrants and refugees will be at an all-time low considering slandering and mischievous lies about them and their lack of willingness to blend with the resident population. Some Chinese have been victimised in European countries by ordinary citizens. Fear and suspicion will bring xenophobia out in the open like never before.

Education will increasingly get more online and consequently a faster democratization of knowledge sharing will take place. Pedagogy will bring in contemporary techniques including professional delivery of vast state- of- the- art educational resources, through more online collaborative platforms. Virtual-Reality, Augmented Reality, Gaming and other Quality teaching tools, besides more holistic approaches will lead to better education. Constraints of physical space and teaching resources have been limiting factors in the past. New technology will enable schools, higher educational and vocational institutions to expand far beyond their four walls.

Some studies suggest that the Aviation industry will suffer a loss of $314B and Travel related business will be the first victims. Tourism will suffer some of the biggest contractions and the social distancing is expected to prevail in some form or the other till 2022.IMF further states that the world economy will see Contraction of about 4-5 % and the notable exceptions are India whose GDP will grow by 1.9% and China by 1.2%. All this augurs very bad for the world economy in the short to medium term.

Consequently, Recruitment and Training methodologies will undergo major transition. Redundancy of manual orientation will bring in major changes in Technology,Skills and Training of workers and employees. Business travel will come down significantly and tools that facilitate online conferences, seminar and interviews such as Zoom etc will become more rampant. Logistics and Distribution will see major induction of AI and other tools for seamless integration. Operational transparency will finally prevail with Block Chain and Data Analytics resulting in better and faster decision making. Constant reinvention and Re-skilling will be the order of the day as better tools come into play.

Spirituality will flourish considering the total helplessness and hopelessness of the humankind against this small virus. Many look at it as the effect of Kali Yuga and the reaction of Karmic forces for the irrational plunder of nature and collective Adharmic actions. Though the restrictions will influence the flocking to places of worship and religious congregations, it will by itself dwindle over time as realization of health threats from mingling will always be in the sub-consciousness. However, personally accessible Gurus and Spiritual leaders will be in greater demand. Particularly in the aftermath of a large number of deaths, disillusionment and breakdown in the conventional belief systems and faith.

In India, labour migration will dramatically reduce, if more job opportunities are made available to them in their respective home states. Companies will have to necessarily rethink on casual /contract labour hiring (hitherto dependent on migrant labour) and will be forced to train local youth and motivate them to step in, at least for the short term. This necessity will drive in more Automation and eventually improve operational efficiency. Management however cannot continue to delay investment in Technology and Automation adoption in the guise of perennial availability of cheap labour any longer.

World class facilities and easy access to Primary health centres in the local neighbourhood would be mostly emphasized upon by city officials and local citizens. Health care Planners will deliberate more on communicable diseases(largely ignored till now) than ever before and protocols for epidemic fighting will get systematized. Dependence on Digital platforms and online shopping will fill in the current gaps, including proliferation of online retailers including Pharmacies. Patients will hopefully stop visiting hospitals for minor ailments, complaints and technology may facilitate long distance consultation and maybe even preliminary remote physical examinations.AI and Video integration with 5G will ensure a paradigm shift in Health care.

The world over Food habits will also undergo significant movement away from the non-vegetarian preferences to more vegan pursuits. Interim this will also see a major push back towards more home cooking.  Eating out may drastically drop in favour of food delivery and Food tech companies will get a further lease of life. Having said this, the Chinese will not change their food habits and will continue eating wild animals in spite of world condemnation.

Initial winners in the COVID battle like South Korea and Singapore have been humbled by increasing re-infections. India has by far managed to be relatively less affected due to the decisive leadership of PM Narendra Modi and well supported by all the state governments. But for the mismanagement of the migrant issue by some states and the fallout of the Tabligi Jamat Criminal Act, India would have had an even better record. It may be premature, but Bold, Firm, Decisive and Timely action by Modi and his ability to galvanise a large section of the public (1.3 Billion citizens) within a matter of days, would be subject matter of future case studies on leadership and crisis management, particularly if this containment record continues. India with its inadequate infrastructure particularly of Hospital beds, low stocks of PPE etc still courageously hit the deck running. The outlook in the future also favours India and China, but the hangover left by the Chinese virus is going to seriously affect PRC 's credibility. The fight for its reputation and survival may hopefully force China to become more transparent and respectful of the world’s collective resolve. Perhaps it may even bring a change in its leadership or its functional style at best or a very chastised Dragon, at the least.